Florida has survived the very first tropical storm (Arthur), before hurricane season has arrived. Hurricane season runs from June 1-November 30.
“It's hard to wrap your head around the idea of storm potential, when coming off quarantine or still in quarantine,” says Ellsworth Buck, Vice President of Insurance, Florida's largest independent home insurance.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association, NOAA announced today, it's expecting an active Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA is forecasting a likely range of 13 to 9 named storms (winds of 39mph or higher), of which Six to ten turn into hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5; with winds of 111 mph or more). NOAA stands behind their predictions having a 70 percent confidence. So how exactly does this forecast rival previous hurricane seasons? The typical hurricane season produces 12 named storms, which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.
“The mixture of several climate factors is driving the strong likelihood for above-normal activity within the Atlantic this year. El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are expected to either remain neutral or to trend toward La Nina, meaning there'll 't be an El Nino present to suppress hurricane activity. Also, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea, along with reduced vertical wind shear, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, and an enhanced monsoon all boost the likelihood for an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season,” reports NOAA.
NOAA is not the only group expecting an energetic hurricane season. “Nearly all seasonal projections that have been from various agencies, institutions and private forecasting companies demand this year to be quite busy,” says Taylor Ward, CNN Meteorologist.
However, it is good to know NOAA along with other weather agencies are not creating a landfall forecast. You'll be able to have an active hurricane season with no US hurricane landfalls. Actually, most don't make landfall. However, it takes only one big hurricane landfall to cause destruction.
As with every hurricane season, hurricane preparedness is important. Keep in mind, you may need to adjust your current arrangements in line with the latest health and safety guidelines from the CDC and your local officials.
We offer flood insurance with the National Flood Insurance Program, NFIP. Floridians have another year before they visit a hike in flood insurance costs. New rates are expected in October 2021.